I mentioned in class the idea that oil refineries produce
more high-skilled jobs than collecting crude oil, but here I will develop that
idea into an argument that relates both the conflict and economic parts of the
resource curse.
I think that the resource curse
explains the violent conflict in some countries very well, but misses in
others. Specifically, it seems like it takes a widely adapted definition of
violent conflict to make the theory work for the more developed nations. I think
that natural resource-rich countries with significant downstream industries
have less violent conflict than natural resource-rich countries without
downstream industries. I think the violence that the countries with downstream industries participate in is outside their borders, while in the other natural resource-rich countries violent conflict takes place within state borders. Further, I think it is not the dependence on a resource
that hurts a country, but the dependence on raw materials as a large share of
total exports.
For example, depending on crude oil
creates an unstable economy, as Ross points out that fluctuations in either
supply or demand can change prices enough to create a dire economic situation.
Add in an oil refinery downstream and a country can now export any of the many
products made from crude oil. This diversification allows for a more stable
economy, and one with higher quality products. The United States rich in
natural resources, but does not experience as much violent conflict within its
borders as many other natural resource rich countries. I think the conflict is
in the countries that export raw materials as a large share of their exports.
One of the problems of the countries
exhibiting violent conflict is their trade relationship with their buyers. The
countries buying the raw materials have an incentive to add value to the
natural resources domestically. This means the developed nations have an
advantage if they can encourage the sellers not to invest in downstream
industry. The way the developed countries can do this is through import
tariffs-taxing any value-added imports more than raw material imports. But if
the countries using import tariffs on value added goods are the same countries
promoting global economic development, they are basically working against their
own goals. What can the countries with the natural resources do? They can
implement export tariffs such that it is more expensive to export raw materials
than it is value added materials. The problem is this plan discourages foreign
investment, which is often needed to establish the industries needed to add
value to the natural resources. The foreign investment is discouraged because
the investors, usually developed countries, can go to the next country selling
raw materials.
Therefore I think much of the
foreign influence from developed countries causes the conflict in the natural
resource-rich countries that have no significant way to add value to their product.
This is because the developed countries prevent the natural resource-rich
countries from diversifying, and make economic growth harder to come by. The
bad or even negative economic growth is associated with more violent conflict
according to Ross. In my opinion, the result of this situation is that a
country like the United States encourages these countries to export raw
materials while sending many of them aid aimed at economic development at the
same time. I think it is better to use economic tools, in addition to cash and
other aid packages, to allow countries to have access to fair markets.
These international trade, natural
resource, and violent conflict forces are much too complicated to be figured
out in this blog. However, I think it is apparent to see the hypocrisy of
sending money to a country to support its economic development, while keeping
that country from the incentive to establish value-adding industries. I think
those tools would work better together.
I think you make a really interesting point with distinguishing between exporting raw materials and instating downstream industries, but I do think there are a few factors that stand in the way. As you stated, increasing tariffs would decrease foreign direct investment, which many of these countries depend on to maintain their economy. Of course this is part of the problem with the resource curse, but I don't think these economies would be able to survive without the investment they have now, or they would at least have to undergo large internal shifts in allocation of resources. Also, many of these countries do not have the economic infrastructure or business officials to establish oil refineries. Perhaps if countries committed to shifting their efforts to refining oil as well as providing it to foreign investment, however again establishing oil refineries domestically would most likely decrease foreign investment. I also think there is a lack of technology prohibiting oil refineries from being established. Ideally I think this is a great plan, but I think there are a lot of economic factors involved and countries would have to make conscious efforts to move towards this goal.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that a huge obstacle is the likelihood that foreign direct investment would leave. I think for this to work, both the oil producer and the oil seller would have to find a way to agree to continue to do a business. Maybe this would mean the country that wants to develop refineries would need to reach an agreement with new customers, but I am not convinced that is plausible.
ReplyDeleteI think ideally a better solution would lie in diversifying the economy altogether, not just creating oil refineries. As Dana said in class, creating oil refineries would make the economy more stable, but would still make them susceptible during oil shortages. Moving away from the oil industry altogether would make them much more stable, maybe through the government using oil profits to fund education for other occupations or something like that. Regardless, diversifying the economy would be just as difficult as creating oil refineries, but it could make the economy much more stable.
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